As of May 12, 2025, 15:00 UTC+8, the live quote of eth to usd was $2,778.09. The high reached was $2,783 in the past 24 hours and the low fell to $2,637.12. The price fluctuation range reached 5.4% and standard deviation was 1.8%. It is 1.2% higher than the average of volatility over 30 days. The market capitalization of circulating Ethereum is 330 billion US dollars, and the 24-hour trading volume is 29.1 billion US dollars. Among them, 34% (9.9 billion US dollars) is from Binance Exchange, and 18% (5.24 billion US dollars) is from Coinbase Pro. The on-chain data strongly positively correlates with the liquidity of centralized exchanges.
Technical analysis shows that the 4-hour RSI of eth to usd is 57.82 (neutral to bullish), and the MACD histogram has expanded by 36.35 above the zero axis, which gives a signal of bullish divergence. The key support is at $2,700 (the 50-day moving average), and the resistance level is at $2,800 (the upper Bollinger Bands). If this resistance is breached, it can activate the liquidation of $380 million of short contracts. Alternatively, if it drops below $2,637, it will activate a $210 million long position liquidation. From a on-chain point of view, the network’s average Gas price dropped to 15 Gwei (approximately $1.2) to demonstrate increased block throughput after the Pectra upgrade, 80% reduction in Layer 2 transaction fees, and to drive the average on-chain transaction volume per day to return to $3 billion.
Market sentiment is controlled by a number of determinants: Prospects for July interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve now sit at 75%, pushing the crypto fear and Greed index to 73 (zone of greed), reversing last month’s “extreme panic” readings. At the same time, trade tariff talks between China and America have sent relief signals. After Vice Premier He Lifeng’s talks with the US side on May 9th, the appetite for risky assets picked up strongly. The net inflow of ETH in the next 48 hours was as high as 1.5 billion US dollars, a new daily high in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the continuing weakness in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, though. The exchange rate now stands at 0.01928, which is near five-year low. Breaking through the crucial support level of 0.018 could lead to a cascade liquidation of leveraged positions.
The implied volatility in the derivatives market rose to 65%, and option pricing indicated that there was a 68% probability that the fluctuation range of eth to usd in the coming 7 days would be within $2,520 and $2,880. In terms of institutional trends, traditional financial institutions such as World Liberty Financial increased their positions in ETH spot ETFs. In the second week of May, they received a net inflow of 412 million US dollars, and the percentage of their holdings reached 6.3% of the existing Ethereum. Operation suggestion: If it stabilizes above $2,700, it can be bullish to $2,880 (1:3 risk-reward ratio). If it goes below $2,637, a stop-loss is required. Long-term investors can also watch out for the staking dividends brought in by the ETH3.0 upgrade. The staking volume is expected to increase by 300% due to the lowered threshold.